Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts?
Thinking in Bets is one of the best books I've read on decision making science. Annie Duke shares actionable frameworks and methodologies to make decisions, leveraging her own experience as a professional poker player. A few lessons I learned from the book:
🃏 Decision-making in life is like poker: you have to make decisions with incomplete information, and, even if you make the right ones, sometimes luck gets in the way.
✅ What makes a good decision is not that it has a great outcome but that it comes from a good process. Said differently, f you only analyse decisions by looking at the results, you're not taking luck into account.
🎲 All decisions are bets against future versions of ourselves. Problem: we are too much dependent on beliefs we have formed unconsciously.
🌱 While experience is necessary to become an expert, it's not sufficient. To learn from your mistakes, you need to analyse your decision-making process independently of luck and update it accordingly.
🤝 Being aware of our biases is not enough to help us overcome them. The best way to analyse our decision-making process objectively, we need to put together a support group of like-minded individuals who are willing to give each other feedback.